Gartner predicts that the global shipments of AI PCs and GenAI smartphones will reach approximately 295 million units by 2024, a significant increase from 29 million units in 2023. GenAI smartphones are expected to account for around 240 million units, while AI PCs will have a shipment volume of 54.5 million units. This represents 22% of all smartphones, both basic and premium, and 22% of total PCs this year.
Gartner defines AI PCs as computers that are equipped with AI processing units specifically designed to accelerate AI performance. These processing units include Neural Processing Units (NPU), Accelerated Processing Units (APU), and specialized units like Tensor Processing Units (TPU). These units are designed to enhance the efficiency and speed of AI computations on devices, without relying on external servers or cloud services.
In the realm of GenAI smartphones, Gartner defines them as smartphones that are designed with hardware and software capabilities that enable seamless integration and usage of AI-driven features and applications. These smartphones can utilize basic AI models or advanced AI models such as Google’s Gemini Nano, Baidu’s ERNIE, and OpenAI’s GPT-4.
The integration of AI into PCs is not yet a prominent factor that drives general consumer spending beyond the predicted price increase. However, business buyers may require more compelling reasons or attractions to invest. Service providers must demonstrate clear benefits of on-device AI to users.
The PC market experienced a resurgence in the fourth quarter of the previous year, following consecutive quarters of decline. Gartner predicts a total shipment volume of 250.4 million PCs in 2024, which marks a 3.5% increase from 2023. On-Device AI is expected to invigorate the PC market throughout 2024.
Similarly, the arrival of GenAI smartphones will not significantly boost the demand for smartphones until 2027. Users have higher expectations for improved smartphone performance rather than novel functions. Consumers have yet to show a willingness to pay extra for GenAI smartphones due to the lack of groundbreaking applications that offer enhanced experiences.
The smartphone market recorded growth in the fourth quarter, after enduring a continuous decline for nine consecutive quarters. It is estimated that global shipments of smartphones will grow by approximately 4.2% in 2024, totaling around 1.2 billion units annually. However, Gartner advises against interpreting the growth as a full recovery. Instead, it should be viewed as a market stabilization, as the shipment volume is still lower than that of 2022, which was almost 60 million units.
TLDR: Gartner predicts significant growth in the global shipments of AI PCs and GenAI smartphones by 2024. AI PCs will comprise 22% of all smartphones and 22% of total PCs. GenAI smartphones are designed with hardware and software capabilities to seamlessly integrate AI-driven features and applications. While the integration of AI into PCs may not drive general consumer spending, business buyers seek more compelling reasons to invest. The PC market is expected to experience growth, fueled by On-Device AI. Similarly, the demand for GenAI smartphones will not peak until 2027, as users prioritize improved performance over novel functions. The smartphone market is stabilizing, and while growth is expected in 2024, it is still lower than pre-2022 levels.
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